Well, would you look at what time it is? It's post season time for baseball! Admittedly, despite not being a particularly big baseball fan, I'm kind of interested in it this year. Maybe it's because it doesn't feature all the same familiar faces - though there are some - or maybe it's because I've slowly been becoming something of a casual Mets fan (I know, I know, bandwagon guy here, but most of my family are Mets fans, and I have a couple friends who are weirdly so - it's been a years-long process by assimilation, really), but I think I might very well follow this year's post season beyond just checking the scores and watching a couple of games.
But, it also means it's time for my yearly rant about Major League Baseball's lack of a salary cap, and how I find it to kind of ruin the league. Allow me to update the numbers a bit. Here are the last twenty-three World Series winners, and their respective ranking in highest payrolls of that year:
2014 - San Francisco Giants - $154 million (7th highest)
2013 - Boston Red Sox: $159 million (4th highest)
2012 - San Francisco Giants: $138 million (6th highest)
2011 - St. Louis Cardinals: $105 million (11th)
2010 - San Francisco Giants: $97 million (10th)
2009 - New York Yankees: $201 million (1st)
2008 - Philadelphia Phillies: $98 million (13th)
2007 - Boston Red Sox: $143 million (2nd)
2006 - St. Louis Cardinals: $88 million (11th)
2005 - Chicago White Sox: $73 million (13th)
2004 - Boston Red Sox: $125 million (2nd)
2003 - Florida Marlins: $63 million (20th)
2002 - Anaheim Angels: $61 million (15th)
2001 - Arizona Diamondbacks: $81 million (8th)
2000 - New York Yankees: $92 million (1st)
1999 - New York Yankees: $89 million (1st)
1998 - New York Yankees: $64 million (2nd)
1997 - Florida Marlins: $48 million (7th)
1996 - New York Yankees: $53 million (1st)
1995 - Atlanta Braves: $46 million (3rd)
1993 - Toronto Blue Jays: $43 million (1st)
1992 - Toronto Blue Jays: $44 million (1st)
1991 - Minnesota Twins: $23 million (13th)
Anything in particular stand out? Well, in case you haven't read any of these posts for the past two or three years, allow me to point out that teams in the top ten highest payrolls (the top third) account for 16 of the last 23 World Series victors. That's 69.5% of the time! Or, if you're more into fractions, that's over two-thirds.
Notice anything else though? Well, there are 30 teams in the Major Leagues. With that in mind, how many teams in the bottom third of payrolls do you see have won a World Series? Yes, that's right. In the past 23 World Series, not a single one of them came from the bottom third. In fact, only one winner came from the bottom half (the 2003 Marlins) of payrolls. Which means, by the way, that 95.7% of World Series winners come from the top half of payrolls.
Well, ok, but not every team in the top third financially even get to the playoffs. Sure, sure. Let's break down the last six years of post season teams:
2015:
AL: New York Yankees (2), Houston (29), Kansas City (16), Texas (8), Toronto (10)
NL: Pittsburgh (25), Chicago (13), St. Louis (11), New York Mets (21), Los Angeles Dodgers (1)
4 of 10 in top third. 3 out of 10 in the middle third. 3 out of 10 in bottom third. 6 out of 10 in top half.
2014:
AL: Oakland, Kansas City, Baltimore, Detroit, Los Angeles Angels
NL: San Francisco, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals
5 of 10 in top third. 3 of 10 in middle third. 2 of 10 in bottom third. 7 of 10 in top half.
2013:
AL: Cleveland, Tampa, Boston, Detroit, Oakland
NL: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta
4 of 10 in the top third. 3 of 10 in the middle third. 3 of 10 in bottom third. 5 of 10 in top half.
2012:
AL: Texas, Baltimore, New York Yankees, Oakland, Detroit
NL: Atlanta, St. Louis, Washington, Cincinnati, San Francisco
6 of 10 in the top third. 4 of 10 in the middle third. 0 of 10 in the bottom third. 7 of 10 in top half.
2011:
AL: New York Yankees, Detroit, Texas, Tampa
NL: Philadelphia, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Arizona
3 of 8 in top third. 3 of 8 in the middle third. 2 of 8 in the bottom third. 5 of 8 in top half.
2010:
AL: Tampa, Texas, Minnesota, New York Yankees
NL: Philadelphia, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Atlanta
3 of 8 in top third. 3 of 8 in middle third. 2 of 8 in bottom third. 5 of 8 in top half.
Sure, 2015 is a bit different from the norm. Nearly a third of the teams come from the bottom third, which has only happened once before since 2010. By the way, in this instance, the difference between the lowest payroll in the top third and the highest payroll in the bottom third is about $20 million. Houston and Pittsburgh are the only teams in this year's post season that did not spend over $100 million. The disparity between the Dodgers (the highest payroll, by far) and the Astros (the lowest in the post season) is insane. It's almost $200 million difference.
Anyway, let's put these numbers into totals and percentages, for those who are into that sort of thing. Here's the breakdown over the last six years, out of 56 playoff slots (8 per year in 2010 and '11, 10 per year after, with that silly wildcard business):
Teams in the top third: 25 (44.6%)
Teams in the middle third: 19 (33.9%)
Teams in the bottom third: 12 (21.4%)
Teams in the top half: 35 (62.5%)
Teams in the bottom half: 21 (37.5%)
World Series Winners (of the past 5 winners, since 2015 is TBD):
4 out 5 came from the top third. (The 2011 Cardinals were 11th in payroll that year.) That's 80%, to do some simple math.
Without knowing anything about baseball, I can pretty much guarantee that Houston and Pittsburgh are out. No chance to win the championship. I can also pretty reasonably rule out the Mets, as well as the Royals and the Cubs. That leaves us with really only half the teams having a reasonable, statistical chance at the title. And look, if it turns out any of those five teams I just listed even make the World Series - never mind win it - I will come back here and post about it.
But frankly, either way, the point doesn't change. The numbers and statistics are pretty clear: the more money you spend, the better your chances are. It's almost like baseball is America's past time in the sense that it really embodies that idea that those with money just have better odds. It's true in baseball. Again, my argument is not that money guarantees anything. It clearly doesn't. If it did, then the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Phillies would have won practically every title in the past ten years.
No, my point is quite simply that the money clearly has some impact. It increases your odds. And, frankly, it's entirely unfair that teams in huge markets like Los Angeles and New York get to compete against markets like Kansas City or Houston. Even if you don't think money makes much of a difference, certainly some of these stats must seem a little strange, right? Surely, you can recognize that the money does make some impact, at least, right?
Really though, no team should be able to spend almost $200 million more than other teams. That cannot be considered fair play...
Anyway, that's my yearly update to the increasingly skewed-in-favor-of-those-with-money statistics. Certainly, I'm hoping for an outlier this year. I'm just not holding my breath.
EDIT: I realized that I incorrectly stated that no wild card team had won the World Series yet. This is, of course, false. The San Francisco Giants were the National League wild card team and won the World Series. Don't know how that slipped through. Was using a previous installment of this rant and forgot the time stamp on it.
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